6 months after swine flu virus identified: No doomsday, but this story isn't over yet

ATLANTA - It was six months ago that scientists discovered an ominous new flu virus, touching off fears of a catastrophic global outbreak that could cause people to drop dead in the streets. Doomsday, of course, never came to pass.

Now that the initial scare over the swine flu has subsided, health officials warn we are not out of danger yet.

"We've got many, many months ahead of us where we don't know what will happen and we need to take the best steps we can to protect ourselves," Dr. Tom Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said last week. "Our biggest concern is that the virus could change, mutate to become more deadly."

With winter approaching, another fear is a one-two punch in which a resurgent swine flu batters young people before the vaccine is widely available, while the ordinary flu strikes the elderly. Also, emergency doctors are worried about the strain on ERs and hospitals.

To date, swine flu has hospitalized hundreds of thousands of people around the world and killed at least 4,500, including at least 600 in the United States. At least 81 U.S. children have died, including many who had no underlying health problems

The CDC was the first to identify the new flu. It was on April 15 that the agency determined the nasal samples from two children in Southern California revealed a swine flu virus that had never been seen before. It was found to contain bits of bird and human flu.

At first the cases represented more of a scientific puzzle than a public health threat. The two children recovered, but investigators were perplexed by how they got it, since the two kids had not been in contact with each other or with pigs.

But within a week, the situation became more dramatic, when testing linked the two children and a handful of subsequent U.S. cases to hundreds of illnesses in Mexico City. Mexican authorities closed schools, museums, libraries and theatres to stop the spread of the disease as initial reports suggested it was killing as many as one in 15 of those infected - a horrifying death rate more than three times higher than the terrible flu pandemic of 1918-19.

A series of bad and good news followed. First, the bad: It quickly became clear that the virus was spreading not only in Mexico and border regions of the United States, but around the world. As health officials had long surmised, international air travel provided a rapid path to world contagion.

What's more, studies indicated the millions of seasonal flu shots administered the previous winter offered no protection against the unusual new virus.

But then came some good news:

-While the flu vaccine was no help, the antiviral medication Tamiflu reduced the severity of illness if taken right after symptoms appeared.

-People 55 and older, who suffer and die the most from seasonal flu each year, seemed mostly to be spared by the new virus. Scientists credited some immunity that they had perhaps picked up from exposure decades ago to a similar-enough virus or vaccine.

-Additional investigation in Mexico suggested that many people had suffered only mild illness. Those cases were not counted in initial reports, meaning the death rate was much, much lower than originally estimated.

In the United States, some of the initial response plans for the new swine flu, an H1N1 strain, envisioned "people dropping dead in the streets," recalled Dr. Beth Bell, a CDC epidemiologist who has been a leader in the agency's response.